Most launch reviews I have sat in ask one question.
Are we on forecast?
It is a fair question. It just does not tell you what to do next. If you are behind, the forecast cannot tell you why.
So in my teams we agree, before launch, what must already be true at each stage of the first year.
From day one: three numbers. Sell-in, sell-out and distributor stock, read separately. Strong sell-in with weak sell-out is stock sitting at the distributor, not demand.
Month three: first use. The target specialists have started the right patients on it. If they have not, look at the message and the targeting before anything else.
Month six: repeat use. The doctors who started are prescribing again, and sell-out is steady. For me this is the real test. One prescription is curiosity. A second is a decision.
Month twelve: a settled place. Formulary listings, tenders and a clear place in treatment. From here the brand can grow without launch-level effort.
The trap is judging the year on sell-in, then loading the distributor to protect the number. It buys one good review and hides the problem until it is harder to fix.
“The forecast tells you that you are behind. The milestones tell you why.”
Lesson 2 of 4 in Step 2: Launches and the portfolio, with the full guide and a checklist for this week.