Most in-licensing conversations start with the forecast.
The partner's slides show the upside. Headquarters wants a fuller pipeline. Everyone is keen to sign.
In my experience, the deals that hurt later were rarely wrong about the science. They were wrong about the market.
Before any term sheet, I want five answers.
Is the need real? Which patients, which prescribers, and what do they use today?
Can we register it? The route, the timing, and the public price the authority is likely to set. The margin has to work at that price, not the one on the partner's slide.
Who must say yes? Formularies, tender committees and insurers, before a single doctor can prescribe.
Can we carry it? The right specialists, medical support and channel. Or an honest plan to build them.
What does the partner expect? Minimum volumes, milestones, supply terms and a fair exit clause. Read the minimums before the upside.
None of these is a commercial question alone. So I bring medical, regulatory, finance and supply into the room early, before any numbers are agreed.
“A brand you cannot register, list or supply is not a pipeline. It is a liability.”
Lesson 11 of 16 in Step 1: Setting strategy, with the full guide and a checklist for this week.