"We are behind target." It's the most common sentence in a sales review, and on its own it tells you almost nothing.
As a first-line manager, you split the target, build the forecast and run the reviews. Most district meetings I've sat in had plenty of numbers and far fewer decisions.
Step 2 of Season 2 of the Pharma Career Ladder is targets, forecasts and numbers.
A target and a forecast the rep believes
Most first-line managers don't set the area target. It arrives from above. But you do decide how to split it, and that split decides whether each rep believes their number or quietly gives up on it in month 1.
When I set a fair target, I look at market potential, sell-out history over the last year or two, what has changed (a new competitor, a lost listing, a vacancy), and my own judgement from the field. Then 2 rules: the same method for every territory, and every rep hears how their number was built. A target the rep can't explain is a target the rep won't chase.
Forecasts go wrong in a different way. Ask for one in front of the team and you get the number they think you want, or one so low they can't miss it. The forecast I trust is built by the rep, from sell-out over the last 3 months, account by account, with the risks named out loud. Agree 1 number and check it mid-month. An honest miss is a conversation. If a rep gets punished for being honest, the next forecast will be the number you want to hear.
Know which number you're reading
"Sales were up this month." Which sales? In a market that works through distributors, there are 3 numbers, and they answer different questions. Sell-in is what the company sold to the distributor. Distributor inventory is the stock held at the distributor, waiting to be sold on. Sell-out is what the distributor sold to pharmacies and hospitals. It's the closest of the 3 to what the market is actually taking, and it tells you where field effort should go.
When sell-in runs ahead of sell-out, distributor inventory builds up. A strong sell-in month on top of growing stock is stock the market hasn't taken yet, and often next month's slow start. And before I judge a rep on a weak month, I check one thing first: was the product actually available at the pharmacy and hospital?
Read the report, then find the gap
Read the district report the evening before with 5 questions. Where are we against plan, by territory? What has changed over several months? Which accounts moved? Is effort on the priority doctors? What will we do? The fifth is what the meeting is for. Every rep gets the same report beforehand, and each rep explains their own territory first.
A missed target is a symptom. To diagnose target versus reality, I want 1 page, read with the rep: sell-out against target by product, where the gap sits (usually a few areas and accounts explain most of it), sell-in and distributor stock read beside sell-out, and the activity behind it. Don't argue about the total. Find where the gap sits.
Then name the cause. "Work harder next month" isn't a plan. Most missed months come down to one of 4 causes. Coverage: are the right doctors on the list and being seen? Frequency: fewer doctors seen more often usually does more. Message: seen often but not convinced, which is a coaching job. Stock: he prescribes, but the shelf is empty. Check distributor stock and raise it the same week. Go through all 4 with the rep.
Manage what can still change
Sell-out, market share and target achieved arrive after the month has closed. You can explain them. You can't change them. Kaplan and Norton's balanced scorecard separates these outcome measures from the drivers behind them. Lagging indicators tell you the score; leading ones tell you what's likely next. In a field team, that means: are the key doctors being seen, how often, and which skills am I seeing on double visits? Start with the leading ones, so the rep leaves knowing what to do on Monday.
A total can hide a key hospital slipping while a few small accounts grow. Pareto's principle applies: a few accounts drive most of a territory's result. So I review the right doctors first: the few that matter, their trend, calls against potential, and 1 action for each slipping account. Often the reason is access, stock or a competitor, not effort.
Reviews that end in a plan
The monthly review is the hour many reps dread. The monthly review I try to run shares the numbers 2 days before, lets the rep read their month first, looks at sell-out, finds the main cause, checks the calls behind it, and agrees 2 actions written by the rep. It ends with "What do you need from me this month?" I never open with the team ranking.
A quarterly business review done properly is built weeks earlier, with the reps. Agree the facts first, explain the gaps honestly, and bring a plan with actions each owned by a rep.
Agreements fade within a week, on both sides. A commitment register has 4 columns: what was agreed, who owns it, by when, and done, moved or dropped. It's shared, opened at the start of every one-to-one, and I go through my own open items first. If nobody wrote it down, it was a conversation, not an agreement.
Fair comparisons, honest month ends
Two reps finish the quarter at the same number. One inherited strong hospitals and loyal prescribers. The other took over a territory left vacant for months. On the league table they're equal. I still use rankings, but comparing reps fairly means showing the territory behind each name and asking how much of the potential each rep captured.
Then the last week of the month, the number short, and one quick fix on the table: a big order into the distributor. Sell-in looks fine, and next month starts with a full warehouse and no reason for the distributor to order. Ending the month honestly means saying early that the month is short, and why. Never cut the price to move stock. Use bonus goods only where pharmacies are genuinely selling through. Stock you push in this month is a sale you take from next month.
Your checklist for this week
- Write down how each rep's target was built, and walk each rep through theirs
- Ask each rep for next month's forecast by account, from 3 months of sell-out
- Put sell-in, sell-out and distributor stock side by side for your district
- Read the next report the evening before with the 5 questions
- For 1 territory behind target, sort the gap into coverage, frequency, message or stock
- Start your next review with the leading indicators and the few key accounts
- Open a shared commitment register, with your own open items at the top
That's Step 2. Next week Step 3 begins: the field day.