Ask a rep for a forecast in front of the team and you usually get one of two numbers.
The number they think you want to hear. Or a number so low they cannot miss it.
Neither helps anyone plan.
The forecasts I trust are built from the field up, and the rep builds them. The steps I use:
Start from sell-out. The last three months, by account. What was shipped to the distributor is a different number, and it can make a month look better than it was.
Ask the rep first. "What do you expect next month, and why?" A number they built is a number they own.
Build it by account. Which doctors, pharmacies and hospitals make up the number. A total with no names behind it is a hope.
Name the risks out loud. Stock, a lost listing, a key doctor on leave. An honest forecast includes what could go wrong.
Agree one number and check it mid-month. If the month changes, adjust early and together.
The part that makes all of this work is the last line. An honest miss is a conversation, not a punishment. If a rep gets punished for being honest, the next forecast will be the number you want to hear.
“Ask for the honest number. You can only manage a gap you can see.”
Lesson 2 of 13 in Step 2: Targets, forecasts and numbers, with the full guide and a checklist for this week.