New markets usually arrive on a slide.
A population number, a growth arrow, and a line saying the competition is weak. It looks like an easy decision.
In my experience, four questions decide whether it really is.
Size. Not the population, but the patients who are actually diagnosed and treated today. That is the demand you can reach.
Growth. Is the therapy area growing, and what is driving it? It tells you whether you are early or late.
Competition. This is where Porter's five forces still earns its place for me. Not only the rivals already there, but generics, substitutes and buyers with strong power. It tells you how hard each patient will be to win.
Access. Registration, price approval by the authority, formulary listings and a capable distributor. It tells you how long before any patient can get the product.
Access is the one the slide usually leaves out, and the one that has surprised me most often.
Two habits help. First, test each question with doctors, pharmacists and distributors on the ground, not only with reports. Second, write down in advance what would make you wait, or say no. It is much easier to agree before the excitement starts.
“A big market you cannot access is smaller than a small one you can.”
Lesson 14 of 17 in Step 4: Distributors and market access, with the full guide and a checklist for this week.