Every country has one.
The brand that has been "about to turn the corner" for several budget rounds.
When it comes up for review, the strongest argument in the room is rarely about the future. It is about the past. The launch spend. The years of effort. The people who built it.
"We have invested too much to stop now."
Kahneman writes about this as the sunk-cost fallacy. Money already spent feels like a reason to keep spending, even when it cannot be recovered whatever we decide.
In my experience, the better question is simpler: what can the next budget still earn?
To answer it honestly, I look forward, not back. The sell-out trend. The segments where the brand still has a real place. What doctors and pharmacists are actually telling the team.
And I ask someone outside the brand team to test the case. Not because the brand team is wrong, but because nobody judges their own work easily.
Sometimes the answer is to invest again, with clear milestones and a date to look again. Sometimes it is to stop, with a proper plan for customers and patients. Both are good decisions. Drifting is not.
“Money already spent should not vote on money not yet spent.”
Lesson 17 of 17 in Step 3: Money, pricing and forecast, with the full guide and a checklist for this week.